What goes down must come up!

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Graph for Article Graham ColorThe real estate market in Jackson County continues its recovery this year with the median price of a home increasing by 15% from $195,000 in January 2014 to $225,000 in August 2014. The number of homes sold this year is about on par with last year with an average of 242 homes selling per month.

Jacksonville (which extends all the way to Ruch) has fared even better with the median price of a home increasing this year by 20% from $291,350 in January to $350,000 in August.

The Jackson county housing market is experiencing faster appreciation growth than the national average, but that is to be expected as our county was one of the hardest hit nationwide and shares the distinction, along with Deschutes County, of being the hardest hit county in Oregon.

We may slow down a bit in fall and winter, but what will be interesting is, what the inventory will look like next spring/summer. We have gone 6 or 7 years seeing little to no building but having population growth and age growth which both contribute to demands on the housing market. In Jacksonville, all the new construction in Vineyard View, at the end of Shafer lane, is sold out! The Farms and Brookview, on G Street and Hueners, will most likely sell out this winter. So will we have any new housing for 2015?

What’s also remarkable is that Jacksonville is not building for it’s demographic. The families moving here tend to be older, those who are either retired or who have the means to escape large cities and make a living here. These two groups, the escapees and retirees, may be in great fiscal health but many of them are planning on aging in place. Their dream does not include the climbing of stairs to reach the master bedroom, so where are the one story new homes?

On the rental front, we are seeing a large demand for rental homes in all of Jackson County and very low supply. This is particularly true in Jacksonville where we manage over 60 rental homes which are all full with a waiting list. As the prices of homes increase, owners that chose to rent out their homes because of a lack of equity are now choosing to sell their homes, leaving the rental market with less and less inventory. The rental market will continue to be tight until we see more housing starts and more rental inventory.

As long as our economy keeps growing, even at a slow pace, we’re likely to see real estate prices grow; and as long as the US population continues to age, we’re likely to see Southern Oregon grow faster than most areas.

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